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John McCain is on easy-street these days, and if his recent appearance on Saturday Night Live is to be taken seriously (it is), he likes it that way just fine.  He's enjoyed the past several months relatively free of media scrutiny thanks to the ongoing Democratic Primary race.  So how long will he be able to enjoy the calm winds and smooth sailing of this year's presidential race?

As soon as the Democratic nominee is decided, all eyes will be on McCain, and it won't be pretty.  Here's what will do him in in November.

1. Failure to fully unite the Republican base.  This past Tuesday, Congressman Ron Paul got 15% of the vote in the Oregon Republican Primary, and has consistently gotten double digits in the most recent several contests.  Even after they were both out of the race officially, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney still received votes.  It may not seem like much of a big deal, but John McCain cannot win in November with only 75-85% of the Republican Party behind him.
2. Close association with President Bush.  George W. Bush is now one of the most unpopular presidents in U.S. History.  This guy is right up there with Herbert Hoover, Warren Harding, and Richard Nixon (who at least had the decency to resign).  He's a pampered boy of privilege who sees the world as a game of "cowboys and indians."  George W. Bush is the modern day Nero, the idiot child who fiddled while his country burned. McCain has accepted his endorsement, and many voters will see a John McCain administration simply as a third Bush term.
   
3. A Pro-War stance.  Whether or not you agree with the War in Iraq, you definitely have to admit that it is extremely unpopular.  For many it is in the top five of their election issues.  John McCain is on the wrong side of the issue.  He is on the wrong side because he wants to appeal to his largely pro-war base: the uneducated, white working-class of the midwest and deep south.  He needed this tactic to win the primary, but it will not translate to the general election.
4. Old Age.  Though we would like to think something like this wouldn't matter, it does.  Big Time.  Throughout history, any time an elderly candidate is pitted against a younger, better-looking candidate, the younger one always wins.  The only exception to this is Michael Dukakis' defeat in 1988 to George H. W. Bush, the vice president of the extremely popular Reagan administration.  We saw it with Kennedy vs. Nixon in 1960, we saw it with Clinton vs. Bush and Clinton vs. Dole, we saw it with Bush vs. Kerry, and we'll see it again with Obama vs. McCain.  The Republican party continues presenting us the next ghastly geriatric in line every 4 years, and this is why they lose.  The only time they ever got it "right" was 2000 and 2004, when they gave us that frat-boy governor we all thought was a real conservative.  The fact is undeniable.  Every 4 years when America picks a president, we follow the news, blogs, and debates with baited interest, checking voting records and discussing the talking points.  Then, on the first Tuesday in November, we promptly elect the cuter one.
5. A campaign that will push the status quo.  "Stay the course" and "thousand points of light" didn't work for Bush the elder in 1992, and it won't work for McCain in 2008.  Most Americans believe our country is on the wrong track.  By burying his head in the sand, McCain is showing off his ivory tower mentality.  He's telling people who have lost their jobs to China that "it's not that bad."  Yes John McCain, it is "that bad."
6. Admitted weakness on the number one issue in the election.  John McCain freely admitted that he isn't strong on the economy, which poll after poll widely establishes that the economy is the number one issue among voters this election. 
   
7. Being in the wrong party at the wrong time.  History has shown that in times of economic distress, the current party will almost never hold on to power.  Voters see the "R" next to a politician's name as a sign that they are responsible for the last 8 years.  Even I personally this year and not necessarily voting for the Democrats, I'm voting against the Republicans.  All the Democrats have to do is ask "are you better off than you were 8 years ago?" and all the work is done for them.